Water, whether in over-abundance or desperately short supply, is an element the Dutch has been genetically linked to eternally. Watch this video - it is awesome:

Keeping it real... just sayin'...

The Climate change debate – where government, business and NGO’s lock horns on who inherits the Earth (and how).

It’s not about – “those who know there is a problem” and “the deniers”.

It’s about… – us learning to adapt to environmental change, polluting less and deciding who gets to do what. Simple?

Climate Change: will it be too hot or too cold?

Climatic change is an important field of study in science. However (as Simon Gear would admit), it is not an exact science – like all sciences, mutable. If our understanding of science did not change, we would still think that the Earth was flat and the Sun revolved around our little planet.

COP17 etc: There is an enormous political, social and economic interest in a scientific consensus, because it determines our understanding of our environment and all that is in it, including humanity itself.

And challenging a consensus is an amazing tool for people to remain free and independent thinkers.

This is why: We hear consistently that climate change is caused by increased Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and that humans are the greatest sinner: by causing this toxic greenhouse gas, causing climate change catastrophically…

Climate history 101:

      The Ice Age was a long-term period of reduction in global temperatures. Greenland and Antarctica were created in this period. The ice age left us with valleys, fjords and rock formations to climb. As they receded, the landscape was free for plant growth and life to flourish. The Canada and United States Great Lakes were carved out by ice.

      Following the Ice Age, the Halocene period began roughly 12,000 B.C. All human civilization occurred within this period, when there was both global warming and cooling periods, which have lasted until today. During the period of 10,000 to 8500 BC, there was a slight cooling period known as the Younger-Dryas.

      However, that passed, and between 5000 and 3000 B.C., temperatures increased to a level higher than today! This period is referred to  as the Climatic Optimum. It was during this warming period in history that Earth’s first great human civilizations began to flourish, such as ancient African civilizations around the Nile.

      Between 3000 and 2000 B.C., a cooling period resulted in a drop in sea levels, creating islands such as the Bahamas! The Roman Empire (150 B.C. – 300 A.D.) occurred during a cooling period, which went until roughly 900 A.D. During the period of 900 A.D. until 1200 A.D., a warming period occurred known as the Medieval Warming Period, or Little Climatic Optimum, which was warmer than today, and people moving in their droves to Greenland and Iceland.

      Then a cooling period followed and between 1550 and 1850, temperatures were colder than at any other time since the end of the previous Ice Age, leading to what has been called the Little Ice Age. Since 1850, there has been a general warming period – like what’s happening now…

Tales from the Farr Side…

This latest warming period has also coincided with the Industrial Revolution, which saw the greatest output of human induced CO2. Al Gore popularized the CO2/temperature connection in his movie, An Inconvenient Truth, in which he showed the correlation between CO2 and well, us. However, paleoclimatologist Lowell Stott in 2007 suggested the rise in greenhouse gas was likely a result of warming – not the cause.

  

Weather and Carbon

The air we breathe consists of 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen a 1% mix of gases. Weather happens in the lowest level of the atmosphere: the troposphere, and is determined by:

      air temperature,

      air pressure and

      humidity.

The most important factors in determining temperature in the atmosphere are:

      radiation arriving from the Sun via

o   visible light,

o   infrared heat rays and

o   ultraviolet rays

      and radiation flowing from the Earth.

A.      Roughly 30% of solar radiation coming into the Earth’s atmosphere is reflected back out to space by clouds, while 70% is absorbed into the atmosphere, increasing the temperature. This is what is known as the greenhouse effect.

B.      Air pressure decreases the higher you get, because there is less air above you.

C.      Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air, varying with temperatures.

We often hear of “greenhouse gases” as being bad things. Yet, water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas of all, making up a much greater percentage than the gases that follow it!!

CO2 / Carbon Dioxide, is produced by all plants, animals, fungi and microorganisms, and it is then absorbed by plants.

As people breathe in oxygen, we then breathe out carbon dioxide, plants take it in through photosynthesis, and thusly emit oxygen for us to breathe in.

Carbon dioxide cannot be so simply classified as a toxin. In fact, it is a life accelerant! Research shows that shifts in rainfall patterns, cloud cover, and warming temperatures triggered a 6% increase in the amount of carbon stored in trees, grass, shrubs, and flowers, particularly the Amazon rain forests, which saw the greatest growth rates in the world.

A study conducted in 2006 revealed that diversity increases as the planet warms and decreases as it cools, yet deforestation can reverse this effect, simulating the effects of a global cooling trend.

In 2007, a study revealed that as icebergs break off from Antarctica (some a dozen miles across), the ocean around them serves as ‘hotspots’ for ocean life, with thriving communities of seabirds above and a web of phytoplankton, krill, and fish below.

In 2002, it was reported that the southern Saharan desert is in retreat, making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa. Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land stretching from Mauritania on the shores of the Atlantic to Eritrea 6000 kilometres away on the Red Sea coast – largely attributed to increases in rainfall.

So.. what then Causes Climate Change?

If CO2 increases lag behind temperature increases, it does not make sense that CO2 can be the cause of temperature increases. It would be the equivalent of saying that growing older is caused by the graying of hair!

The Number One climatic change agent is radiation emitted from the Sun. Sunspot cycles are the irregular rises and drops of temperature on the Sun’s surface. The cycles tend to last 11 years.

Earth is not the only planet that experiences climate change! The sun is getting hotter…

In 2002, Pluto was undergoing global warming in its thin atmosphere.

In 2006, Jupiter was in the midst of a global change that could modify temperatures by as much as 10 degrees F. In 1998, it was found Neptune’s largest moon, Triton, was undergoing a period of global warming since 1989.

In 2007, National Geographic News reported that simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause…. Mph, why all the fuss?

Venus is the “solar system’s most inhospitable planet.” Funny that J A planetary scientist at Oxford University stated, “It's very disturbing that we do not understand the climate on a planet that is so much like the Earth,” and that, “It is telling us that we really don't understand the Earth.”

CO2 is roughly 95% of Venus’ atmosphere, compared to Earth’s atmosphere, which is 0.038% CO2. Venus may have so much CO2 because it lost its water.

Perhaps we should put more focus into preserving and protecting our oceans.

Get Your Parka, Here Comes Global… “Cooling”?

There is a little problem with the whole “global warming” consensus, in that recent scientific research shows traditional climate cycles cancel out the heating effect of greenhouse gases from pollution.

In other words, the natural climate cycles that Earth goes through, and always has gone through, have changed again, just as a political consensus was reached. Proof points:

      In 2008, snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966 and China went through its most brutal winter in a century.

      When we are told the Artic Sea ice is melting to its “lowest levels on record,” the records date back to 1972. Yet there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past. As it turns out, the ice itself has not only recovered from melting, but has grown thicker in many places. Climate models have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation.

 Even the BBC reported that temperatures will decrease because of the cold La Nina current in the Pacific, which is a natural phenomenon, and has a large effect on increasing cyclonic activity in the Atlantic. It’s interesting how La Niña and El Niño have disappeared from discussion on climate and hurricanes. Today, whenever there is a hurricane or natural disaster, it is instantly blamed on global warming and having been accelerated by human activity.

In July of 2008, Physics and Society reported that CO2 will add little more than 1°F (O.6°C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100; that global warming stopped ten years ago; etc…

But what now of the Consensus?

Some 4,000 scientists, including 72 Nobel Prize winners petitioned against the UN-organized 1992 Rio Earth Summit, which concluded that global warming and other environmental insults were threatening the planet with catastrophe. In 2000, to counter the Kyoto Protocol, a petition was made up of 1,500 clergy, theologians, religious leaders, scientists, academics and policy experts concerned about the harm that Kyoto could inflict on the world’s poor.

The former editor of New Scientist magazine, Nigel Calder, wrote that roughly 20 years ago, climate research became politicized in favour of one particular hypothesis and the media often imagine that anyone who doubts the hypothesis of man-made global warming must be in the pay of the oil companies. As a result, some key discoveries in climate research go almost unreported.

Who cares what causes it! How do we deal with it?

While many scientists hold strong that it’s the Sun, cosmic rays, ocean currents and other natural phenomena that are causing climate change – and not us mere mortals – what will set us apart (and test us to the hilt) is the ability of different peoples to change and adapt, which determined the survival of our earliest civilizations too!

History will not look kindly upon our scientific ignorance and politically fear-driven society.

How have we viewed the people of the past who thought the Earth was flat, or the Sun revolved around Earth?

Getting this debate out of the way paves the way for the real issues to come to the fore:

      Fighting poverty AND diseases, old and newly borne

      Creating a viable financial system from the ashes of a smouldering market system

Now the fight

Much of the people in the world have been riled up with predictions of a catastrophic end to mankind and the world unless we don’t do something about so-called “man-made” climate change. Ironically enough, our refusal to adapt to a changing world, and instead a determination to fight it with our efforts to “go green” and “carbon neutral” may, in fact, cause the catastrophic end of our civilization. And sadly, in this instance, it would undeniably be a man-made disaster.

COP17 outside UN Precinct - all PR? Nope.

Having driven myself (in a small, energy-efficient mobile which, coincidentally, also boasts an electric version), I'm now at the World Cup legacy Moses Mabhida Stadium to catch the Sustainability event of FH client, BMW.

As an official vehicle supplier to the COP 17 climate summit, the 15 BMW 320d and 20 BMW 530d models fuel-efficient diesel models, 10 security vehicles and 5 emission-free e-mobility models were the subject of plenty hallway talk at yesterday's COP17 expo.



Nissan has also brought its Leaf electric models to COP17 and South Africa, I'm proud to say, is sporting its very own locally produced Joule electric car for the first time!

Having popped by all the COP17-related sites in Durban within 24 hours of arrival, I can safely confirm once you are three city blocks away from any event, you'd be unaware COP was on at all.

Not that there is a shortage of entertainment. There is a line-up of beach concerts, art displays and Greenpeace alternative energy displays to entice the general public in the climate change debate, and speaker's corner opposite the UN Precinct is now permanently vacated by OccupyCOP17 and greenie supporters - some are even former UN / COP delegates!

The halls bordering the ICC are reminiscent of a museum of sorts, massively displaying the remedial goodwill acts of SA's mining, oil, transport and banking giants. But luckily (for this unregistered delegate) the big NGO / business summits are now picking up, to culminate in the prestiguous WBCSD World Climate Summit this weekend 3-4 December, featuring the South African President Dr Jacob Zuma, Presiding COP President Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres among a host of others.

Back to the present: greatest two-bobs of news today:

·         The $30 billion Green Climate Fund has been signed off and half will constitute an Adaptation Fund (in plain English, the world’s developing nations most sensitive to climate-related stresses will share $15 billion to prepare for the worst and they’ll receive these funds – if the contract is honoured – by the close of 2012 latest).

·         Qatar is hosting COP18 (I’m glad for South Korea – their citizens need the $65 million+ more, methinks).

Time to prepare for the WWF / NBI "Towards a Green Economy" event at Nedbank Kingsmead Buidling this evening!

Climate Smart Agriculture @SunCoast, COP17

I just met the Head of Government of the smallest island-state in the world, speaking about his people's efforts towards reducing their carbon footprint. The pacific island of Tokelau houses 1466 citizens across a 10 square kilometre land mass and falls under the protection of its constitutional partner, New Zealand. Interestingly, a mass exodus to New Zealand in the 60s led to a scenario where, by 2000, more Tokelau-born citizens were living in New Zealand than in their homeland.

Given unpredictable human movements, such as global tourism, emigration and refugee intake, food security become harder to predict. Add to this, policy around food security, agricultural practice and climate change are developed and implemented in segregation, which makes no logical sense but is a case of status quo.

To make it easier for global aid, carbon trading and private sector financiers to marry their funds with climate-smart agircultural finance projects, the industry would do well to integrate in their proposals all aspects of agricultural sustainability. Governance issues over the years have necessitated the complication of funding mechanisms to ensure the desired outcome, and a thorought understanding is needed to cross this barrier in terms of the diverse information requirements of the differnt funds.

So what role can climate finance play in climate-smart agriculture? About 50% of the new $30 billion Green Climate Fund will be dedication to adaptation strategies. This would be flood, earthquake, volcano and all matter of disaster nature will throw at especially developing nations as climate shifts shake Earth's weather foundations.

The vast majority of the funding will emanate from the private sector and driven by the commercial farmer who, as a businesman specialising in farming, would be best equipped to lead the way. A tricky question is that of insurance or assurance: given how adaptable farmers are becoming in what crops they plant, when and in what numbers in the face of climatic changes, what would a long-term funding structure resemble?

Across the Continents, Brazilian and East African farmers are partnering to build the correct equipment - something their Governments find harder to do, but is easier to achieve in their private (commercial) capacity.

Even in Tokelau, pest and disease has struck, when villagers imported fertilisers and chemicals, which found their way into lagoons killing local sensitive fish species. Seven of the 11 cyclones predicted for Tokelau hit last year, yet for 7 months they had no water. Governor Faipule Foua Toloa confirms what we already know: climate change affects the most remote (and one would have wished, sheltered) nations dramatically.

He says they are following a reverse process by being at the COP17: they cannot just stand by and see their island submerge into the water. So to draw the world's eyes on the problem facing them because of global action, they are to become the first country in the world to use 100% renewable energy by next year. Although it is a tremendously expensive exercise for this small island state, the high cost of diesel will be recuperated in a short 3-5 years of using solar technology.

Day 1 @COP17

Scoping out the formal government, business and (to a minute degree) NGO expo stands adjacent to the heavily policed UNFCCC Precinct today, I was struck by one thing. No, not a baton - I didn't try my luck. 

Rather, I was surprised by how outdated an expo with typical stands advertising 'good deeds' seemed, against the backdrop of our species' continued comfort - our means of survival in discussion just next-door.

Across the road, activists on the roundabout island had no shortage of media suitors - these included former UN delegates and goverment policy advisors. The #Occupy_COP17 movement has also materialised. It will be interesting to offset today's "have" showings against the "have-not" climate adaptation appeals I expect to emanate from the NGO community expo at Sun Coast Casino tomorrow morning.

Fast-forward to the past. The UNFCC borderline expo was dominted by SA's Department of Environmental Affairs, DIRCO and Local Government enjoying most of an exhibition hall each, with the fourth long hall spread with SA's banking, mining, transport and a few alternative energy stands. Overseas' representation included a large lonely Japanese stand, our ever-eager Nordic partners and Siemens with a massive display including this bike-mobile sporting a Chinese friend testing German technology:

Cape Town had a very shoo-wow stand built of crates in the centre, adjacent to Wits University's engineers sporting a biofuels plant, ideal for small farms and with parts they overhauled from the 1920s! Of course, we were treated to Zulu and Indian traditional dance throughout the day, and I did spot the Vegan, some spiritual stands scattered between our government monoliths.

Notably, Eskom displayed Upington's impressive solar farm and SA's very own first battery electric engineering masterpiece - the Joule car - was viewed up close by our Deputy President, Kgalema Motlanthe I caught on walkabouts when government undoubtedly needed a break from the negotiating table (or just needed to check what us kids were up to):

I wasnt surprised to see the dti stand there, but I was pleasantly surprised that they were showcasing my PET recycling client Propet on their promo video! What did catch me off-guard, was NERSA's stand there - wherefore...

With the new day comes new strentghs and new thoughts. From NGO and agriculture, to a sneak peak at BMW's new hybrids, to The World Wide Fund for Nature tomorrow evening, it promises to be a spectacularly varied day for me...

#COP17: Arrival

Arrived at King Shaka, humid and thundering with climate talk anticipation. A drizzling drive to Umhlanga could not prepare me for the dark, winding pathway up to my very quaint lodgings, suitcase and hefty computer bag in tow. A welcome cuppa and blog session amid African rain, frog choir and crickets reminded me why I love this Continent so dearly...

Today will be for scoping out the various venues, familiarising my overwhelmed self with the stakeholder hotspots and, by the looks of it, a little less rain come daybreak.

FH Chronicles #1: The case for the business community at COP17

When trying to balance the conversation between government and business in terms of climate change mitigation, it is often helpful to look beyond how the markets function (or should function), and instead examine the policies that define these markets.

While consistency, a level playing field and government support through enabling policy frameworks are undoubtedly needed to ensure a properly functioning green economy, can big business just get on with it and – from a profitability angle – make it work, going solo?

Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are undeniably the green key to long-term sustainable success, but customers are often not willing to wait for a long and torturous PPP process before demanding new technology, smart infrastructure and other tools that will enable them to increase operational efficiency, save on energy costs, and undertake other activities designed to make them more competitive as well as greener.  Policy-makers who harbour a ‘hurry up and wait’ mentality will no doubt be left in the dust as businesses move forward and innovate themselves.

Yes, the race is on. A political framework and better agreements would certainly accelerate the change we so desperately need to bring about in this world. But business can achieve a great deal even without this framework. For example, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD will host a two-day Climate Change Conference at COP17. During that conference, it hopes to harness the strengths of its 200+ corporate members (with combined revenue of over $7 trillion) to thrash out solutions in advance of any big global agreement.

While it is true that there are other big players in society that need to change their ways, theposition of the political/business relationship is nevertheless central to the debate. Politicians, like business leaders, have broad agendas, and certainly other issues are clamouring for priority – with public finances topping most lists. Perhaps these issues have a lot more in common than first meets the eye.

Broadly, society is at threat following recent market failures and the subsequent recession in which most of us now find ourselves. Obviously this is the subject of considerable regulatory discussion, and the public will hold government and business accountable, should they fail to act. But at the same time, we can’t afford to take their eye off climate change as the major long-term threat to our societies.

If we look at the gains since the Earth Conference in Rio 20 years ago and the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg a decade ago, there has actually been significant positive trend in the environment and social space – and more importantly, a growth in mind set and commitment to addressing the problem. We have firmly established that consumers, governments and businesses need to change their various ways. There is still much more to do, of course, but progress is being made.

But what role does the investor community play in aiding sustainable growth? With the financial system still strongly biased towards delivering short-term gains,  is there room for it to play a role in ensuring  a sustainable future (not futures) market?

Listed businesses are easily trapped in a cycle of quarterly reporting and short-term forecasts by an investment community not supportive of costly adaptation programmes. In fact, the average shareholding in any company on the New York Stock Exchange is currently four months – that doesn’t smack of committed investors, does it?  
Have a look at http://bit.ly/sRVpK8 for more of this revealing data.

Does short-term capitalism need controls instilled?  

Without investor support, listed businesses would perhaps need to adapt under the sword of rebellion, which is not viable. But private equity firms are starting to outperform public companies. Their vision is not blurred by the flurry of daily stock market movements, and instead focuses on building value within their portfolios. This could well be a blueprint for enlightened investors – not least because, in 2010, the top 100 companies in the Newsweek “Green Ranking” outperformed S&P’s 500 Index by 6.8 percent!

It would perhaps be fortuitous for businesses driving adaptation agendas to engage with responsible pension funds bearing long-range liabilities and shouldered by hefty assets under management. These funds, by their very nature, share a longer-term perspective on creating a better world.

In the growing debate about who gets to decide about the future of the corporation, enlightened investors would be wise to place their bets on companies with a long-term sustainable vision!!!